As with all of my blog post, a disclaimer: this post is only my speculation.
Android will not live till its version 12/13. Android, as we know it now, will continue till version 11/12 and then cease to exist.
Google has been leaving phone manufacturers to ditch devices with each new version of Android. A few companies give support for a year or two at the most and then leave users to either buy a new device or use an aftermarket Android ROM.
This strategy has been very good for Google. Android now holds around 80 percent market share in smartphones. This is a big win. But, this has also made many users very angry.
To quell this anger Google has made some changes in its latest Android 8.1 which makes it easier for device manufacturers to support devices for three years. And with each year comes a new Android version.
8+3 = 11. So for discussion sake, a new device that launches with Android 8.1 will be upgraded to Android 11. The phone manufactures may even cheat its users and only give upgrades for 2 years and only security updates for another year. So, 8+2 = 10 (and + 1 year of security updates).
Google's Android Exit strategy is Google Fuchsia. Already Fuchsia is running and being tested extensively. Fuchsia has its own APIs and Development Tools. Like Flutter.io. Fuchsia enabled Google to leave Android and its dependency on Java and Linux, and gives full control of the ecosystem in Google's hands.
Android will not live till its version 12/13. Android, as we know it now, will continue till version 11/12 and then cease to exist.
Google has been leaving phone manufacturers to ditch devices with each new version of Android. A few companies give support for a year or two at the most and then leave users to either buy a new device or use an aftermarket Android ROM.
This strategy has been very good for Google. Android now holds around 80 percent market share in smartphones. This is a big win. But, this has also made many users very angry.
To quell this anger Google has made some changes in its latest Android 8.1 which makes it easier for device manufacturers to support devices for three years. And with each year comes a new Android version.
8+3 = 11. So for discussion sake, a new device that launches with Android 8.1 will be upgraded to Android 11. The phone manufactures may even cheat its users and only give upgrades for 2 years and only security updates for another year. So, 8+2 = 10 (and + 1 year of security updates).
Google's Android Exit strategy is Google Fuchsia. Already Fuchsia is running and being tested extensively. Fuchsia has its own APIs and Development Tools. Like Flutter.io. Fuchsia enabled Google to leave Android and its dependency on Java and Linux, and gives full control of the ecosystem in Google's hands.
I believe Google will release Fuchsia with Android 11/12 and will have compatibility with the Android APIs that will be introduced with Android 11/12. This will help the app developers a window of say one to two years to make the transition from Android to Fuchsia.
Android's run will come to an end in the next 3 years. Most probably in the year 2020.
The timeline would be the current cycle + the next cycle of Android project Treble. The current cycle of devices running Android 8.1 to Android 10 will have Android 10 as the last upgrade and will get 1 year of security updates.
The next year will be of devices with Android 9 to Android 11. This may eventually be the last cycle.
But I think there would be another cycle of devices that will be the last android devices that could potentially be upgraded to Fuchsia 1. These devices will run Android 10 to Android 11/12 and could may be upgraded to Fuchsia 1.
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