The End of Android is Near. Android 11/12 will be the last one

As with all of my blog post, a disclaimer: this post is only my speculation.

Android will not live till its version 12/13. Android, as we know it now, will continue till version 11/12 and then cease to exist.

Google has been leaving phone manufacturers to ditch devices with each new version of Android. A few companies give support for a year or two at the most and then leave users to either buy a new device or use an aftermarket Android ROM.

This strategy has been very good for Google. Android now holds around 80 percent market share in smartphones. This is a big win. But, this has also made many users very angry.

To quell this anger Google has made some changes in its latest Android 8.1 which makes it easier for device manufacturers to support devices for three years. And with each year comes a new Android version.

8+3 = 11. So for discussion sake, a new device that launches with Android 8.1 will be upgraded to Android 11. The phone manufactures may even cheat its users and only give upgrades for 2 years and only security updates for another year. So, 8+2 = 10 (and + 1 year of security updates).

Google's Android Exit strategy is Google Fuchsia. Already Fuchsia is running and being tested extensively. Fuchsia has its own APIs and Development Tools. Like Flutter.io. Fuchsia enabled Google to leave Android and its dependency on Java and Linux, and gives full control of the ecosystem in Google's hands.

I believe Google will release Fuchsia with Android 11/12 and will have compatibility with the Android APIs that will be introduced with Android 11/12. This will help the app developers a window of say one to two years to make the transition from Android to Fuchsia.

Android's run will come to an end in the next 3 years. Most probably in the year 2020.

The timeline would be the current cycle + the next cycle of Android project Treble. The current cycle of devices running Android 8.1 to Android 10 will have Android 10 as the last upgrade and will get 1 year of security updates.

The next year will be of devices with Android 9 to Android 11. This may eventually be the last cycle.

But I think there would be another cycle of devices that will be the last android devices that could potentially be upgraded to Fuchsia 1. These devices will run Android 10 to Android 11/12 and could may be upgraded to Fuchsia 1.

Important Info for People Travelling in Airplane within India

Just a small tip for those who are travelling in airplane within India:

Keep all your bought goods, like souvenirs, holy water, toys, etc, in the check-in baggage. Basically try to fit all other items in the check-in baggage and carry clothes in your hand baggage. This will save you from a lot of trouble at the airport. Also, remove the batteries from toys and carry the batteries in your hand bag.

Electric Scooter Feasibility in India - September 2017 - Part 2

The previous article in this series is at: http://aajkyakiya.blogspot.com/2017/09/electric-scooter-feasibility-in-india.html

To continue with the electric cost calculations, we will now see the cost of charging the battery in a commercial charging station.

Why is this needed? Well, you will sometime have to charge your electric vehicle's battery from a charging station (equivalent of petrol pump for petrol based vehicles). This will definitely be required while on a long drive or in an emergency.

The tariff (of course the max one) for a commercial establishment in my area is:
Consumer Category & Consumption Slab: LT II - LT Commercial
> 50 kW load: Rs. 240 per kVA
Wheeling Charge (Rs/kWh): 1.58
Energy Charge (Rs/kWh): 7.60
Regulatory Asset Charge (Rs/kWh): 1.11
On top of this we have GST 18%

As we have seen in our previous article, our scooter's battery requires 1.345 unit of electricity to charge 100%. So, for every charge in a commercial charging station, the cost will be:
(240 * 1.345) + (1.58 * 1.345) + (7.60 * 1.345) + (1.11 * 1.345) = 336.64 + 18% GST = Rs. 397.24

This is more than the cost for charging the scooter's battery 12.5 times at your home.
i.e. cost for 1 time at charging station > 12.5 times at home

Also note that the electric cost will increase every year, by next year the cost for the same 1.345 units will be Rs. 413, in another year this cost will be Rs. 426.

Now, suppose the equivalent petrol scooter has a 5 litre capacity, then the petrol charge would be: 5 * 80 (considering Rs.80 per litre) = Rs. 400.

So the electricity cost and petrol cost will nearly be the same. The only thing in favor of electricity is the range (km per charge) the scooter will give. But as we have already mentioned in the previous article, the range will go down substantially after the 1st year. So, we will get less and less range with each charge every year (or every month).

Now, on top of this charging cost, we have to add the battery cost of Rs. 20,000 every third year. This makes the electric dream a cost nightmare for the average consumer.

Update (29 Sep 2017):

One more calculation:
For each 100% charge, our scooter gives 48 km in the 1st year, 38 km in the 2nd year, and 30 km in the 3rd year.
And as calculated above, a 100% charge at a commercial establishment will cost around Rs. 400.

And, in Rs. 400 we get 5 litre petrol. This will give us (40 km per liter * 5) = 200 kms.

Per km cost for petrol = Rs. 400 / 200 kms = Rs. 2 per km.
Per km cost for electric = Rs. 397 / 48 kms = Rs. 8.27 per km. (1st year)
Per km cost for electric = Rs. 413 / 38 kms = Rs. 10.87 per km. (2nd year)
Per km cost for electric = Rs. 426 / 30 kms = Rs. 14.2 per km. (3rd year)

At this cost, a commercial electric charge is more than 4(/5/7) times costlier than petrol.
In addition, do not forget the Rs. 20,000 battery to be bought in every 3 years time.

Electric Scooter Feasibility in India - September 2017

A major jolt for the automotive industry took place recently. I have read in the news that India is aggressively pursuing the end of fossil fuels and the rise of electric vehicles. According to the news reports, the benefits of this change will be a cleaner environment, cheaper cost of travel, and more.

Well, I tend to agree on the cleaner environment bit but the cheaper cost of travel part is where I am not convinced.

First, the batteries to be used in these electric vehicles are currently not manufactured in India. A leisurely search on the Internet and on vehicle manufacturing companies websites showed me that a battery for a electric scooter costs around Rs. 20,000. And we would have to change the battery in every 2 years.

Why to change the battery in every 2 years? Because the scooter battery can be charged over only 1000 times. And, each charge will give you about 60 km (stated on the website of the scooter manufacturer).

And, we all know that what the company says is never accurate in the real world usage. So considering a 20% loss, that 60 km range goes down to 48 km. So if you plan to travel 48 km every day then you would have to recharge the battery every day. Again, we all know that battery capacity decreases every year or maybe every month. We get almost 20% less juice from the battery every year. So the 48 km will go down to 38 km in the second year and to 30 km in the third year.

Lets consider the specifications of a currently available electric scooter:

MOTOR: 250 Watt
TOP SPEED: 25 Km/Hr
BATTERY: 48 Volts 20 Ah
RANGE: 60 Km/Charge
BATTERY TYPE: Lithium Ion
CHARGING TIME: 4 - 5 Hours
CHARGER: 48 Volts 6 A

Lets calculate how the charging time is calculated:
Formula: Battery Capacity / Charger Amp = Charging Time
In this case, the battery capacity is 20 Ah and the charger amp is 6 A.
20 / 6 = 3.33 Hours
Consider 40% of losses in battery charging
Then 20 * (40 / 100) = 8
therefore, 20 + 8 = 28 Ah
Now Charging Time of battery = 28 / 6 =  4.67 Hours

Next, the amount of electricity required to fully charge the battery:
Electricity is stated in kilo watts per hour. Suppose, you have a 100 watt bulb, this means that the bulb consumes 100 watt per hour of use. So if you use the bulb for 10 hours then you have used 1 kilo wall (1000 watt) and this is 1 unit of electricity.
So, in our case, the charger is 48 volts * 6 A = 288 watts
And we are using the charger for 4.67 hours = 4.67 * 288 = 1345 watts. This is 1.345 unit of electricity.

Now what is the cost of electricity in your area? In my area it is: (I am showing the highest tier)
Consumer Category & Consumption Slab: LT 1 (B) - Residential | Above 500 units (balance units)
Fixed / Demand Charge per month: Rs. 105
Wheeling Charge (Rs/kWh): 1.61
Energy Charge (Rs/kWh): 8.30
Regulatory Asset Charge (Rs/kWh): 1.07
On top of this we have GST 18%.

So, if your scooter charge gets you above 500 units then you will pay 105 + (1.61*1.345) + (8.30 * 1.345) + (1.07 * 1.345) = 119.77 + 18% GST = Rs. 141.33 for the first charge and Rs. 17.43 for subsequent charges in the month.

Lets compare:
Consider a petrol scooter that gives you 40 km per liter and this electric scooter which gives 48 km per charge. And you travel say 20 km per day:
Total distance in the month: 20 * 30 = 600 km.
Petrol cost: 600 / 40 * (Petrol Cost, say Rs. 80 per liter) = Rs. 1200
Electric cost:
1st year (monthly): 600 / 48 = 12.5 charges = 141.33 + (17.43 * 11.5) = Rs. 341.78
2nd year (monthly): 600 / 38 = 15.79 (rounding to 16 charges) = 141.33 + (17.43 * 15) = Rs. 402.78
3rd year (monthly): 600 / 30 = 20 charges = 141.33 + (17.43 * 19) = Rs. 472.5
Plus add 20,000 for a new battery in the 3rd year.
That comes out to: (341.78 *12) + (402.78 * 12) + (472.5 * 12) = 14,604.72 + 20,000 = Rs. 34,604.72 in three years.
The petrol cost for the three years will be: 1200 * 36 = Rs. 43,200 (Considering the same price for all three years)

Total savings on fuel in three years = 43,200 - 34,604.72 = Rs. 8,595.28. That is Rs. 238.76 per month savings.

So, there is a saving on fuel cost, but not that big to warrant an immediate switch. Maybe with battery manufacturing in India, and cheaper batteries, the electric vehicles will be more attractive to the cost conscience.

Cardboard Road Roller

The last weekend, I was making a cardboard road roller with my kid. I got the instructions form a youtube video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPKSwnX_tUQ) and my kid and I set out to create something together.

I made some changes to the road roller - like using toilet roll for the front and back wheels. Using regular cardboard instead of the carton cardboard used in the youtube video, and maybe some more changes.

In the youtube video, the person uses a glue gun to join the various parts and I did not have a glue gun. What is a glue gun - a glue gun has two parts, one the gun itself and the second, the glue stick.The glue stick is inserted though the back of the gun and pushed forward using the trigger. On the way out, the gun has a metal nozzle. Oh, and the gun is connected to an electric outlet, this is required to head the nozzle and melt the glue stick as it comes out. The glue stick, to me, looks and feels like some sort of clear plastic substance. As long as it comes out hot from the gun, you can glue things with it. And it becomes hard as useless if you do not use it while the glue is hot. Once the glue cools down it becomes that same plastic. It is efficient to glue two papers but not much for cardboard. This I found out much later.

So, I bought a new glue gun for INR 195 from my local stationery shop. One glue stick for INR 7. The ice cream sticks for INR 2 for 10 sticks. And so on.

The road roller took a considerable amount of time to complete. Much more than I had imagined looking at the youtube video. I think we took almost four hours to ready the craft. We had a lot of distractions in between, but still this was a lot of concentration for a cardboard road roller.

The main problem was the glue gun. The glue just wont join the card boards. The papers were joined easily, but not the cardboards. I would have preferred to use traditional *cols rather then the glue gun. But, my kid was having a lot of fun using and seeing the glue gun in action. So, it was worth it in the end.

Have a look at the final model:

Next, I would like to take on something bigger.